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    您當前位置:首頁 > 國研視點 > 專家視點 > 正文
    周宏春:人工智能重塑未來社會
    2019-06-10 00:00

    2016年3月,圍棋頂級高手李世石在持續五天的人機對戰中以1:4落敗于阿爾法狗(AlphaGo)。一年時間后,AlphaGo升級版Master在圍棋對弈網站悄然出現,在快棋對弈中橫掃中日韓圍棋高手取得60連勝,展示了人工智能的威力。人工智能(AI)是讓機器會感受、理解和學習并付諸行動,是模擬、延伸和擴展人的智能的理論、方法、技術及應用。

    人工智能的發展已超過70年歷史。隨著1941年以來的計算機發展,科學家試圖造出有著人的智慧的智能機器。1955年末,Newell和Simon開發了一個“邏輯專家”程序:將每個問題表示成一個樹形模型,再選擇最可能得到正確結論的一枝求解,這個“邏輯專家”因而被為是第一個AI程序。1956年,人工智能之父JohnMccarthy把對機器智能感興趣的專家召集到Vermont參加Dartmouth夏季研究會,成為AI發展中的一個里程碑。20世紀70年代以來,人工智能被稱為三大尖端技術之一(空間技術、能源技術、人工智能),也被認為21世紀三大尖端技術(基因工程、納米科學、人工智能)之一。

    AI分成技術支撐層、基礎應用層和方案集成層,通過知識表示、自動推理和搜索、知識獲取、知識處理、語言理解、視覺、自動程序設計和智能機器人等實現智能化。

    技術支撐層:由算法模型(軟件)和關鍵硬件構成。關鍵硬件包括用于數據采集的傳感器和用于高性能并行計算的人工智能芯片,如GPU、FPGA、NPU等。算法模型主要對數據進行運算分析,以提升機器的自主學習能力。

    基礎應用層:主要由感知類技術和其他深度學習應用構成。為了讓機器完成對外部世界的探測,即看懂、聽懂、讀懂世界,由計算機視覺、語音識別、語義識別等構成,是智能產品或方案的支撐基礎。

    方案集成層:為特定應用場景提供產品或方案。根據不同行業或應用場景需求構建不同的智能解決方案,如智能物流、智能安防、無人駕駛汽車、工業機器人及智能工廠等。人工智能有著非常龐大的應用空間和市場。

    機器學習的數學基礎是統計學、信息論和控制論等。計算機從解決一類問題的經驗中獲取知識、策略,運用學到的知識解決類似問題并積累經驗。這是一種連續型學習方式,不能從一個“領域”跨到另一個“概念”。而人除了經驗學習外,還有“靈感”或“頓悟”式的“跳躍型學習”、有創造。

    人工智能的應用前景廣闊,下面是目前人工智能應用最多的幾個場景。

    家居。通過智能硬件、軟件系統、云計算等構成一套智能家居生態圈。用戶通過遠程控制、互聯互通、自我學習等途徑,來優化家居的安全性、節能性、便捷性。如智能音箱紛紛由小米、天貓、Rokid等企業推出,不僅打開了家居市場,也為更多的智能家居用品培養了用戶習慣。打通產品間的溝通壁壘,提供安全可靠的智能家居服務,是下一步的發力點。

    零售。智慧供應鏈、客流統計、無人倉/無人車等成為熱點。京東自主研發的無人倉,通過深度學習、圖像識別、大數據應用等,可以讓工業機器人自主判斷并行動,以實現商品分揀、運輸、出庫等的自動化。圖普科技則運用人臉識別和統計功能,從性別、年齡、表情、新老顧客、滯留時長等方面建立到店客流用戶圖像,為門店調整運營策略提供基礎,以提升效率和競爭力。

    交通。智能交通系統,是應用通信、信息和控制技術(ITS)的集成產物。ITS應用最為廣泛的地區是日本,其次是美國、歐洲等地。我國智能交通系統通過車輛流量、行車速度等信息采集和分析,有效提高了通行能力、降低了尾氣排放污染環境,提高了管理績效。

    醫療。通過圖像算法和語言處理技術,醫療服務商應運而生。如提供智能醫學影像技術的德尚韻興,研發細胞識別醫學診斷系統的智微信科,提供智能輔助診斷服務平臺的若水醫療,及統計處理醫療數據的易通天下等。盡管智能醫療在輔助診療、疾病預測、醫療影像輔助診斷、藥物開發等方面發揮著重要作用,但因影像數據、電子病歷等信息不共享、合作不透明等方面的原因,存在技術發展與數據供給之間的不協調問題。

    教育。科大訊飛等企業早已開始探索人工智能在教育領域的應用。通過圖像識別,利用機器批改試卷、識題答題;通過語音識別以糾正、改進發音;通過人機交互,進行在線答疑解惑等。AI用于教育領域可在一定程度上改善教育資源分布不均衡、費用高昂等問題,給師生提供更有效率的學習方式。

    物流。利用智能搜索、推理規劃、計算機視覺及智能機器人等技術在運輸、倉儲、配送裝卸等流程上的自動化改造,基本上實現了物流的無人操作。利用大數據對商品進行智能配送規劃,優化物流供給、需求匹配、物流資源,京東、蘇寧、菜鳥等研發無人車、無人機以解決大部人力布在“最后一公里”的問題。

    安防。近年來,我國安防監控行業發展迅速,在公共和個人場景監控安裝攝像頭總數迅速增長。在部分一線城市,視頻監控實現了全覆蓋。安防監控行業發展經歷了模擬監控、數字監控、網絡高清和智能監控等四個階段。每一次突破,均得益于算法、芯片和零組件的技術創新。技術創新與成本控制成為產業升級、規模增長的關鍵。人工智能是一種全新的認知方式,如手機在計算能力方面比人聰明、GPS在導航方面比人聰明。著名學者史蒂芬·霍金警告人們,真正意義上的人工智能誕生,或將導致人類的滅亡。而《奇點的迷思》一書,則否認由于技術發展速度呈指數增加,在未來某個時刻速度將接近于無限大以至于人類社會發生顛覆性變化。

    人工智能將重塑全新的未來。在農耕時代、工業時代,動力由人力、生物質和化石能源提供;第三次工業革命的動力是風能、太陽能、電力、蒸汽能等;智能電網將電力輸配到每一個組織或工廠。作為一種新的生產力因素,AI將改變人的行為,很多知識產業和白領工作將可能被機器人所取代。AI也將對經濟發展產生巨大影響。埃森哲對12個發達經濟體的研究發現,AI可提高40%的勞動生產率。到2035年,AI使經濟增長率提高一倍。

    科技改變生活,人們已從互聯網技術的發展和運用中切實感受到;人工智能重塑未來社會,將體現在智慧城市、智能制造乃至相關商品和服務中,信息安全亟待立法保障,也存在不確定性。可以堅信,人工智能由人開發,人也有能力避免人工智能發展的不確定性!

    作者:國務院發展研究中心社會發展研究部副巡視員、研究員 周宏春 來源:《中國商界》2019年第6期 
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