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    您當前位置:首頁 > 國研視點 > 專家視點 > 正文
    許偉:美聯儲貨幣政策框架評估芻議
    2019-06-10 00:00

    2018年11月中旬,美聯儲宣布要對貨幣政策的策略、工具以及溝通方式進行一次全面的評估。上一次評估的結果是2012年引入2%的顯性通脹目標,確立了沿用至今的貨幣政策框架。按照美聯儲官方說法,金融危機已經過去十年,外部環境發生了較大變化,對貨幣政策重新評估,主要是看看現有的政策框架是否需要調整,以更好地促進就業和穩定物價。

    具體來講,涉及三個方面的問題。一是過去一段時期貨幣政策目標(充分就業和2%的通脹)是否完全實現了,或者說,如果政策目標屢屢不能實現,后續是否需要找補。二是現有的貨幣政策工具是否足以實現目標,若不足則如何擴充。三是如何進一步改進公開市場委員會的政策溝通策略。正如美聯儲副主席Cl audia所言,這一評估并不涉及貨幣政策目標的調整,是演進(Evol ution)而非革命(Revol ution)。

    的確,時過境遷。上一次評估的時候,美國呈現一定復蘇勢頭,但高失業率和低通脹率并存,同時聯邦基金利率已經觸及零下界,傳統貨幣政策效力受到制約。如何提振通脹預期、降低真實利率、加快經濟復蘇和促進就業增長是當時面臨的一個重大挑戰。通脹目標顯性化,有助于錨定通脹預期,避免通縮螺旋。現如今,美國經濟進入景氣階段,失業率降至50年來新低,但核心PCE通脹率仍在1.5%附近徘徊,聯邦基金利率不過2.5%。且不少研究表明,自然利率近些年來總體呈現下行態勢。于是美聯儲開始擔心,實際通脹率長期達不到目標,公眾的通脹預期是否會錨定在較低水平?如果經濟再次陷入衰退,貨幣政策是否有足夠空間來應對?

    除了內部評估以外,各區域儲備銀行從今年2月起,舉辦一系列“美聯儲聽你說(Fed Listens)”的活動,邀請學界、企業、社區、非政府組織等不同領域的專業或者非專業人士與會,討論貨幣政策對就業、金融問題、分配、農業、交通、住房、區域經濟等方面的影響。6月初,還舉辦專門會議,就貨幣政策框架、傳導機制、國際影響、溝通策略等進行研討。當然,評估中涉及的一些事項,實際上美聯儲一直在持續推動,例如改善與公眾的溝通方式,增加美聯儲的透明度等。鮑威爾就任美聯儲主席以來,每一次公開的市場委員會會議后都會召開一次記者發布會,會議聲明的單詞數量進一步縮減到300個左右。從去年晚些時候開始,美聯儲定期發布兩份新報告,即《金融穩定報告》和《監督與監管報告》,對美國金融體系的韌性進行評估,并提供銀行監管相關的信息和活動。

    這一次貨幣政策框架的評估,與眾多貨幣經濟學者的研究相呼應。例如,埃格特森(Eggertsson)等人的研究表明,如果自然利率持續保持在低位,政策利率觸及零下界的頻率會增加,擴張性的貨幣政策效力會下降。Ber nanke在2017年也提出過臨時性的價格盯住(Tempor ar y Price-Level Target),并允許長期價格水平保持2%升幅的思路。彼特森國際經濟研究所的加儂和柯林斯(Gagnon·Col l ins)認為,從1995年至今,美國的核心通脹大部分時候都是低于2%的政策目標,這可能意味著過去二十年的外部沖擊,大部分是負向沖擊,容忍更高一點的通脹水平有助于消除這種不對稱性。

    特朗普上臺以后,關于貨幣政策的討論政治化傾向明顯。前些日子,特朗普提名的兩名美聯儲理事人選在國會正式表決之前都打了退堂鼓,但白宮對貨幣政策的批評并沒有因此減弱。在這種背景下,美聯儲充分征求公眾意見,對貨幣政策框架進行充分評估和討論,并反思得失,似乎可以視為一種應對外部壓力的舉措。另外,與評估相關的一些議題,比如通脹盯住制改進、貨幣政策的國際傳導機制,也值得進一步思考。

    通脹盯住制的內涵從一時達標拓展至較長時期內平均達標,容忍通脹水平某段時期超過目標水平,是否更有助于預期管理?這本質上涉及對預期形成機制的判斷,對政策當局的操作提出了更高要求。經濟陷入危機時期,在受制于名義利率零下界的影響情況下,試圖讓價格回歸每年2%的增長趨勢,未償不能作為一種提振通脹預期、加快經濟復蘇的做法,但效力并不一定就比名義GDP盯住或者直接將允許的通脹目標提高至4%的做法更高。走出危機以后,如果再考慮上述做法,可能面臨兩難。人們若相信央行在價格補償基本結束后會重新收緊政策,那么這種預期提振作用就會打折扣;但如果人們相信央行在找補完成以后,允許通脹的“子彈”再飛一會,央行對通脹管理的良好信譽也會打折扣。

    改進以后的通脹盯住制是否更有利于促進金融穩定?通常認為,通脹穩定并不等于金融穩定,即便在金融市場體系相對完備、貨幣政策傳導機制相對順暢的美國,1929年股市崩盤、2008年次貸危機都是在通脹水平基本穩定的情況下出現的。如明斯基在《穩定不穩定的經濟》提到的那樣,過于穩定的經濟可能會滋生道德風險,增加微觀主體過度冒險的傾向。2008年國際金融危機以后,也有不少文獻提出過類似觀點,貨幣政策無法單獨應對金融風險。但Woodf or d等一些經濟學者也認為,核心問題在于是否有比通脹盯住制更好的方式;2008年國際金融危機以后,經濟沒有陷入通縮螺旋,且較大蕭條更快恢復,很大程度上受益于穩定的通脹預期,以及在此前提下央行能夠獲得的政策空間。相較于其他方式,經過改進的彈性通脹盯住制(Fl exibl e Inf l ation Target)能夠為貨幣政策應對價格、產出和金融波動風險提供更多空間。

    美國貨幣政策調整會對其他經濟體尤其是新興經濟體產生何種外溢效應?在自然利率下降、自然失業率測不準、核心通脹率保持低位、財政政策面臨債務上限約束的情況下,如果采取彈性通脹盯住制的思路被采納,美聯儲利率上調步伐可能更加緩慢,以期延續美國內需增長勢頭。這會間接擴大新興市場貨幣政策的短期騰挪余地,刺激更多資本進入新興市場,促進投資和消費,并有助于沖抵一部分貿易摩擦對金融市場、全球貿易的影響。當然,美國國際收支失衡程度可能進一步擴大,同時給予關稅工具更多的自由度,滋生更多貿易摩擦風險。

    作者:國務院發展研究中心宏觀經濟研究部研究室主任、研究員 許偉 來源:《中國經濟時報》2019年06月10日 
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