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    您當前位置:首頁 > 國研視點 > 媒體訪談 > 正文
    漆云蘭:市場需求增加是高端白酒價格上漲最主要因素
    2019-06-10 00:00

    白酒,尤其是高端白酒,被稱為“不是必需品的必需品”,在2012-2014年短暫的沉寂后,近幾年來,由于市場需求不斷提升和消費升級的巨大提振,白酒尤其是高檔白酒價格也是水漲船高,更是呈現出“淡季不淡”這樣一種現象。

    近期,五糧液、洋河、郎酒等一線白酒品牌漲價不停。其中,五糧液在近期的股東大會上明確了第七代經典五糧液(普五)于5月21日下線,第八代“普五”將在6月上線,且第八代“普五”的出廠價為889元,比第七代提高了100元;洋河旗下產品的供貨指導價最高漲幅超20%;郎酒也宣布青花郎未來將在3年內分6次提價來實現1500元/瓶的目標零售價。

    當前我國白酒行業呈現出哪些新趨勢?哪些因素使得漲價潮接踵而來?未來,地方中小品牌的白酒應如何生存?普通百姓還能喝得起嗎?如何看待品牌集中度和行業集中度越來越高這種趨勢?針對這些問題,中國經濟時報記者采訪了國務院發展研究中心市場經濟研究所流通研究室副主任、研究員漆云蘭。

    當前白酒行業呈現出4大新趨勢

    中國經濟時報:目前,我國白酒市場可以說是一年一樣,甚至是一季度一個樣。以你的研究,當前我國白酒行業呈現出哪些新趨勢?

    漆云蘭:應該說,高端化、品牌化、集中度提高、向優勢特色產區集中是當前我國白酒行業呈現的新特點、新趨勢。

    第一,高端化趨勢。以2018年為例,數據顯示,2018年高端白酒銷售總額為5363億元,比2017年增長了12.88%,其中利潤為1250億元,利潤同比增速為29.98%。高端白酒行業利潤空間較大,從一定程度上反映出白酒行業高端化的趨勢。

    第二,品牌化趨勢。隨著經濟發展,人們的消費水平進一步提高。原來消費不起的品牌酒,現在可以消費了,品牌白酒的渠道不斷下沉,白酒消費進一步趨向品牌化。

    第三,集中度進一步提高。近年來,前七大酒企(茅臺、五糧液、洋河、瀘州老窖、山西汾酒、郎酒、劍南春)的合并市場占有率從約18%上升至約34%,正在逐步蠶食地方中小品牌的市場份額,品牌集中度也越來越高、白酒行業集中度也越來越高,行業擠壓式增長也會愈發明顯。

    第四,向優勢特色產區集中。4月8日,國家發展改革委公布了“關于就《產業結構調整指導目錄(2019年本,征求意見稿)》公開征求意見的公告。《征求意見稿》第二類限制類中,雖然”白酒生產線“依然在列,但備注了”白酒優勢產區除外“,這對白酒優勢產區是一個利好的政策信號。

    市場需求增加是價格上漲最主要因素

    中國經濟時報:據了解,洋河股份、瀘州老窖、郎酒等近期紛紛提價,茅臺終端市場零售價更是直逼2400元。在你看來,哪些因素使得漲價潮接踵而來?

    漆云蘭:2012-2014年,高端白酒行業是受影響比較大的幾年。經過近幾年的調整和對市場的準確判斷,當前高端白酒增速較快。

    第一,品質提升的結果。由于技術進步及質量管理的進一步嚴格,白酒行業在生產過程中的品質問題得到了極大的改善。

    第二,市場因素。對于企業來說,對市場有信心,業績很好,整個市場處于牛市的生態,給價格上漲提供了機遇。隨著經濟發展,尤其是擠出了公款消費后,實際的市場需求依然比較旺盛。高端白酒被稱之為“不是必需品的必需品”,具有凡勃倫消費屬性,特別是在一些商務領域,價格越高,需求越旺盛。

    第三,成本因素。當前,工人工資、原材料、流通渠道成本等都普遍上漲,在這種情況下,價格必然上漲。

    第四,另外一個不可忽視的因素是高端白酒收藏價值很高,同時,中間商囤貨也普遍存在,這也在一定程度上推高了高端白酒的價格。

    有多大消費能力,就消費多少錢的酒

    中國經濟時報:近年來,白酒行業品牌集中度也越來越高,行業擠壓式增長也會愈發明顯。在你看來,未來地方中小品牌的白酒應如何生存?普通百姓還能喝得起嗎?

    漆云蘭:白酒消費大省山東、河南沒有全國性的消費品牌,但是也有一批地方性市場占有率比較高的白酒中小企業。從消費和市場來看,無論是高端還是中低端白酒,市場供給都比較充足,俗話說,你有多大消費能力,你就消費多少錢的酒,我想不會出現想喝白酒卻買不到的情況。

    事實上,對于白酒行業來說,準入門檻并不是很高,白酒的替代性也很強。例如,在農村,也有很多自己釀酒的作坊,在農村也很有市場。這些,都可以在一定程度上緩沖高端白酒上漲帶來的沖擊。

    我認為,應該重點關注白酒的品質,提倡理性飲酒、科學飲酒,提升中低端尤其是低端白酒的品質,歷來白酒事故幾乎都發生在低端消費市場,只有這樣,才能讓老百姓喝得起酒,更要喝得上安全、放心、品質高的酒。

    集中度越來越高是正常的市場行為

    中國經濟時報:你如何看待品牌集中度和行業集中度越來越高這種趨勢?

    漆云蘭:我認為,這是一個很正常的市場現象。在很多行業,集中度都是越來越高,在某種程度上,這是產品更有保障的象征。首先,可以實現規模經濟,而且便于監管。其次,企業有足夠的經濟實力和能力去進行創新,從而引領整個行業發展。

    客觀而言,我們的市場經濟發展僅僅有30來年的時間,白酒行業集中度提高只是相對于以前而言,但還遠遠達不到對市場的壟斷地位。我們當前需要更加關注的是在集中度越來越高的過程中是否有非市場因素在起作用,如果有,則需要加強監管。如果僅僅是正常的市場行為,是致力于行業的品質、品牌、文化推廣,這都是很正常的現象。

    白酒行業是一個市場化很高的行業,當前還遠遠達不到壟斷的局面。高檔、中檔、低檔酒市場上都很充足,替代性也很強。因此,只要是正常的市場行為,我們都不應該過于擔憂。

    作者:記者 呂紅星 來源:《中國經濟時報》2019年06月10日 
    【關閉窗口】



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